A year ago, Liverpool walked into the Parc des Princes as Premier League champions-elect with Harvey Elliott on his way to immortality. They won 1-0 and still got knocked out on penalties at Anfield. That is the most generous framing available for what happened next, because PSG went on to lift the trophy and Liverpool have spent the intervening twelve months discovering that last season was the peak and this one is the descent.
The City defeat in the FA Cup was a 4-0 dismantling — an Erling Haaland hat-trick and a Mohamed Salah performance that captured the broader problem. He had a golden chance in the first half and fluffed it. He took a penalty before half-time and saw it saved by James Trafford. This is a player on a farewell stretch whose confidence has evaporated at the worst possible time. The broader Liverpool squad isn't in much better shape. Van Dijk has drawn criticism this season for a perceived drop in leadership, particularly the team's tendency to collapse after conceding first.
Arne Slot's options from the right are exhausted to the point that he's reportedly considering pushing Jeremie Frimpong forward simply because none of Cody Gakpo, Alexander Isak, Hugo Ekitike or Rio Ngumoha are natural right-sided attackers. Isak is only just back from injury. Ekitike returning to his old club is a nice narrative beat but doesn't change the underlying tactical problem, which is that Liverpool do not currently have an attacking shape that threatens elite defences.
PSG, meanwhile, had an extra day of preparation because Ligue 1 released them early. They beat Toulouse 3-1 on Friday to extend their winning run to four. They dismantled Chelsea 8-2 on aggregate in the last sixteen — 5-2 in Paris, 3-0 at Stamford Bridge. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia has scored four goals in his last three Champions League knockout matches and is playing with the kind of swagger that makes right-backs check their insurance policies.
Ousmane Dembélé is the reigning Ballon d'Or winner. João Neves and Vitinha run the midfield in a way no Liverpool central pairing can currently contain. Bradley Barcola is a fitness doubt, which is the one small mercy for the visitors.
The one statistical consolation for Liverpool is that they've kept four clean sheets in their last five Champions League matches, so there is at least some European muscle memory to fall back on. But a clean sheet at the Parc des Princes against this PSG attack requires a level of defensive concentration that Liverpool haven't shown against the best opposition all season.
Prediction: PSG 4-1 Liverpool.
Liverpool could grab a late consolation and Slot spends the journey home wondering whether he'll be sacked by the end of the Quarter Final.
This is a rematch of last season's Round of 16 tie where Liverpool won 1-0 in Paris but lost 2-0 at Anfield to go out on away goals. PSG have not stopped improving since; Liverpool haven't stopped declining.